My AOS are Formal Epistemology, General Philosophy of Science, and Philosophical Logic. My AOC is Analytic Metaphysics.


Papers in Refereed Journals

  1. (2017a) On the Justification of Deduction and Induction. European Journal for the Philosophy of Science 7 (3), 507-534. local file
  2. (2017b) Why Follow the Royal Rule? Synthese 194 (5), 1565-1590. local file
  3. (2015a) How to Learn Concepts, Consequences, and Conditionals. αnalytica 1 (1), 20-36. open access!
  4. (2015b) What Should I Believe About What Would Have Been the Case? Journal of Philosophical Logic 44 (1), 81-110. local file
  5. (2015c) with P. Brössel, Bayesian Confirmation: A Means With no End. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 66 (4), 737-749. local file
  6. (2014a) New Foundations for Counterfactuals. Synthese 191 (10), 2167-2193. local file
  7. (2014b) For True Conditionalizers Weisberg’s Paradox is a False Alarm. Symposion 1 (1), 111-119. open access!
  8. (2014c) What is the Permissibility Solution a Solution of? – A Question for Kroedel. Logos and Episteme 5 (3), 333-342. open access!
  9. (2013a) Structural Equations and Beyond. The Review of Symbolic Logic 6 (4), 709-732. local file
  10. (2013b) Belief Revision I: The AGM Theory. Philosophy Compass 8 (7), 604-612. local file
  11. (2013c) Belief Revision II: Ranking Theory. Philosophy Compass 8 (7), 613-621. local file
  12. (2013d) Belief First. The Reasoner 7 (7), 82. open access!
  13. (2013e) with T. Kroedel, Counterfactual Dependence and ArrowNoûs 47 (3), 453-466. local file
  14. (2013f) with P. Brössel, A. Eder, Evidential Support and Instrumental RationalityPhilosophy and Phenomenological Research 87 (2), 279-300. local file
  15. (2011a) Lewis Causation is a Special Case of Spohn CausationBritish Journal for the Philosophy of Science 62 (1), 207-210. local file
  16. (2008a) Milne’s Argument for the Log-Ratio MeasurePhilosophy of Science 75 (4), 413-420. local file
  17. (2008b) Reply to Crupi et al.’s ‘Confirmation by Uncertain Evidence’ ([2008])British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 59 (2), 213-215. local file
  18. (2008c) Hempel’s Logic of ConfirmationPhilosophical Studies 139 (2), 181-189. local file
  19. (2008d) Assessing Theories, Bayes StyleSynthese 161 (1), 89-118. local file
  20. (2007a) The Consistency Argument for Ranking FunctionsStudia Logica 86 (2), 299-329. local file
  21. (2007b) The Logic of Theory AssessmentJournal of Philosophical Logic 36 (5), 511-538. local file
  22. (2006a) Ranking Functions and Rankings on LanguagesArtificial Intelligence 170 (4-5), 462-471. local file
  23. (2005a) What Is the Point of Confirmation? Philosophy of Science 72 (5), 1146-1159. local file
  24. (2005b) Subjective Probabilities as Basis for Scientific Reasoning? British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 56 (1), 101-116. local file

Encyclopedia Entries

  1. (invited) Ranking Theory. In R. Pettigrew & J. Weisberg (eds.), The Open Handbook of Formal Epistemology. open access!
  2. (2011b) ConfirmationOxford Bibliographies Online. Revised with J. Dallmann in 2017. local file
  3. (2009a) Ranking Functions. In J.R. Rabunal Dopico & J. Dorado de la Calle & A. Pazos Sierra (eds.), Encyclopedia of Artificial Intelligence. Hershey, PA: Information Science Reference, 1351-1355. local file
  4. (2008e) Formal Representations of Belief. In E.N. Zalta (ed.), Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. Revised in 2016. (20.000+ words) open access!
  5. (2008f) Inductive Logic. In J. Lachs & R. Talisse (eds.), Encyclopedia of American Philosophy. New York: Routledge, 475-478. local file
  6. (2007c) Confirmation and Induction. In J. Fieser & B. Dowden (eds.), Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy. (15.000+ words) open access!

Other Papers

  1. (2016) Means-End Philosophy. In W. Freitag & H. Rott & H. Sturm & A. Zinke (eds.), Von Rang und Namen. Essays in Honour of Wolfgang Spohn. Münster: Mentis, 173-198.
  2. (2009b) Belief and Degrees of Belief. In F. Huber & C. Schmidt-Petri (eds.), Degrees of BeliefSynthese Library 342. Dordrecht: Springer, 1-33. local file
  3. (2007d) The Plausibility-Informativeness Theory. In V.F. Hendricks & D.H. Pritchard (eds.), New Waves in Epistemology. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 164-191. local file
  4. (2005c) The Logic of Confirmation and Theory Assessment. In L. Behounek & M. Bilkova (eds.), The Logica Yearbook 2004. Prague: Filosofia, 161-176. local file
  5. (2005d) The Logic of Confirmation. In O. Neumaier & C. Sedmak & M. Zichy (eds.), Philosophische Perspektiven. Beiträge zum VII. Internationalen Kongress der ÖGP. Frankfurt/Main – Lancaster: Ontos, 309-315. local file
  6. (2003) Degrees of Belief as Basis for Scientific Reasoning? In W. Loeffler & P. Weingartner (eds.), Knowledge and Belief. Papers of the 26th International Wittgenstein Symposium, Kirchberg/Wechsel (Austria) 2003. Kirchberg: Austrian Ludwig Wittgenstein Society, 143-146. local file


  1. (2012) Review of Wolfgang Spohn, The Laws of Belief: Ranking Theory and Its Philosophical Applications (Oxford University Press 2012). Philosophy of Science 79 (4), 584-588. local file
  2. (2006b) Review of Vincent F. Hendricks, Mainstream and Formal Epistemology (Cambridge University Press 2006). Philosophy in Review 26 (4), 257-259. local file


  1. (in print) A Logical Introduction to Probability and Induction. New York: Oxford University Press.
  2. (MS1) Belief and Counterfactuals. A Study in Means-End Philosophy. Under contract with OUP.
  3. (2004) Assessing Theories. The Problem of a Quantitative Theory of Confirmation. PhD Dissertation. Erfurt: University of Erfurt. (urn:nbn:de:gbv:547-200400640)


  1. (2009c) ed. with E. Swanson & J. Weisberg, Conditionals and Ranking Functions. Special Issue of Erkenntnis. With contributions by C. Cross, R. Stalnaker, R. Williams, T. Williamson and an Editorial (133-134).
  2. (2009d) ed. with C. Schmidt-Petri, Degrees of Belief. Synthese Library 342. Dordrecht: Springer. With contributions by R. Foley, K. Frankish, R. Haenni, A. Hájek, J. Hawthorne, C. Howson, F. Huber, J. Joyce, D. Makinson, H. Prade & D. Dubois, H. Rott, B. Skyrms, W. Spohn. Paperback edition October 2009.